Looking back on my predictions for 2008

Dec 31

Editorial David 4 Comments
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Last year, I made a post on my LiveJournal, with my predictions for what the tech world had in store for us through 2008. Given that today is New Year’s Eve, I thought it would be a good time to review my predictions!

Here’s a summary of my list; underlined are the ones I think I got right:

  1. There will be a successful Linux phone
  2. Microsoft will extend support for XP
  3. The bandwidth draught of 2008
  4. Some computer builders to drop desktop PC’s and focus only on laptops
  5. Google will make a chat bot which will answer all your search questions
  6. There will be a Facebook killer
  7. DRM free music sales will take over DRM music sales
  8. Wireless chargers will trickle through, at last
  9. Green computing will become a big issue
  10. Some TV shows will be available on-line before they are broadcast on TV

So, my predictions were about 40% accurate. :-)

There was a Linux phone, the G1, based on Google’s “Android” platform. Sure it may be early to call it a success, but it’s had plenty of attention on the tech press.

Microsoft did indeed grant XP a six month stay of execution, by means of extending the “Vista Business downgrade” loop hole.

DRM free music world wide really took off this year. In the UK alone, we now have four major DRM free music stores: Tesco Digital, Play.com, 7digital and Amazon.

Green computing is an issue, particularly with the super efficient “Atom” CPU’s found in netbooks.

I was disappointed about the wireless chargers. We were seeing lots of prototypes and hearing lots of talk during 2007, but come 2008 it all went quiet.

So there we have it, looking back on what actually happened in 2008, it’s been a heck of a roller coaster ride in the tech world. Because the circumstances of the global economy are now so different, and so many unpredictable things before the economy tanked, I am not making any predictions for 2009. I think it’s all too tough to call.

Okay, okay, I will make one call for 2009. I hereby predict that all of the big-name “Web 2.0″ social media sites (such as Facebook, Myspace, Twitter, Flickr, etc) will survive the global recession.

–

Lastly, 2008 saw the launch of this, the fourth incarnation of my personal website. I have been pleasanty surprised with the traffic it has received. While still modest, it’s more than I hoped for. So thank you to everyone who stops by to read this, I am grateful, and I hope you’ll stick with me as I find more to write about in the next 12 months.

Sincerely,
David.R.Gilson

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4 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. Ryan
    Jan 06, 2009 @ 18:37:21

    Dude,
    Your aversion to mentioning the A-Word is starting to make your reporting seem biased in someway ;-) Speaking specifically on DRM-Free music, you do seem to make some, shall we say ‘sweeping’ omissions….

    For the past year or so, iTunes has had about 2.5M DRM-free tracks (by my count within 20% of the other firms you mention), and as off today has 8M drm-free tracks – about double of any of those others (my figures for the others my be out of date of course!).

    I suppose one could remove iTunes from the list as the required software doesn’t run on 1% of desktop user’s OS (and that’s being generous) – you know I think the new year has really brought out the bitchyness in me ;-)

    Oooh now to go and reply to some comments on /. – no wait, must resist urge to talk s**te..Must leave YouTube comments insteads (I suspect still being at work is sending me a bit kaka ;-) )

    Ryan

    Reply

    • David
      Jan 06, 2009 @ 19:02:44

      Well Ryan, I think you outlined the reasons for me for omitting iTunes from the list for me!

      They’ve been slow to catch up with the other DRM free outlets, and they are still not 100% DRM free, while all the others are. Then as you say, the software doesn’t work with non Windows or Mac systems. Actually I could stop here, since I was listing 100% DRM free music outlets only, which iTunes is not.

      Also of course, the other big limitation of iTunes is that you cannot use it with your own personal media player, you have to use it with Apple personal media players only. So, while iTunes has a massive captive audience, I don’t think iTunes is an attractive proposition any more given that there is a wide choice of DRM free music outlets which lets you use any personal media player of your choice. Seriously, given all the choice that’s available, what do you get in exchange for volunteering to be locked into iTunes?

      Reply

  2. Ryan
    Jan 06, 2009 @ 21:50:50

    One word, which for some reason despite the act of offering being on offer to every computer/software/service manufacturer – they just don’t seem to realise the importance of it….Convenience, pure unadulterated and total _convenience_ – you know this what is what actually frustrates me more than anything – there are no barriers to prevent someone else bring in a comparable vertically intergrated solution, there was no reason from MS not to do it with Zune (they fail on unclear payments), amazon fail on lack of hardware, creative et al fail on lack of integrated management and download tool – yet there are no (zero, nadda, zip) technological barriers to stop Apple’s level of integration being replicated.

    Whilst a Linux copy of the software might be nice (if only to silence whiners) – would you divert resources to port an app, to a platform with less than 0.9% market penetration, and with a large portion of that user base frequently and vocally opposed to you? ;-)

    Can’t use it with your own media player? Come on, weak argument – 90% of people can use it with their personal media players, that’s like me saying I can’t use HD-DVD’s as I’ve opted to buy a BluRay player (personal choice, not enforced)

    Anyway, I’d better get a move on, got a bit work to do and then a bed to get too ;-)

    Catch you later old chap.
    Ryan

    Reply

  3. David
    Jan 07, 2009 @ 13:13:44

    I get what you’re saying about iTunes being an all-in-one solution, hence that convenience.

    Although, I see the lock-in of iTunes as an inconvenience that outweighs the convenience you mention. Especially when you consider that the alternative with a general personal media player is drag and drop mass storage. Is drag and drop that difficult to use? You know, I might have been just a little tempted to get the iPod Touch, although Apple did the massively stupid thing of dropping the mass storage facility, all because they want people locked into their way of doing things, and removing choice.

    Reply

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